👎 October was bad

On today’s Supply Shock, Pete Rizzo and fintech analyst Boaz Sobrado unpack a weird October for bitcoin, the onshoring of crypto markets, CZ’s pardon, tokenized stocks, corporate treasuries and whether this time is actually different.

This October may go down as the worst for bitcoin’s price in seven years, since 2018.

So, while the seasonality said green, the macro environment spawned other ideas. But Sobrado pointed out that November is historically the strongest month for bitcoin. The door isn’t shut just yet.

That said, institutions run the tape, and the ebbs and flows of retail attention are mattering less.

“Market participants — companies etc. — these are playing an ever bigger role in the price discovery of bitcoin,” he told Rizzo.

“Retail flash crashes and retail memes about Uptober etc. are playing less and less of a role and more institutional money is deciding how bitcoin is moving....if there is regulatory clarity and regulatory movement coming in and if that's scheduled for Q1, then potentially there's going to be a lot of action in anticipation of that.”

Full episode on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and X.

This newsletter was created with assistance from AI tooling.

• BTC/USD is yet to breach $116,000 again since Monday morning’s push. Current price: $114,830 and about even for the day.

• A French lawmaker has submitted a bill proposing a national bitcoin reserve which would acquire 2% of the supply over seven to eight years.

• The filter debate has a new frontier: BIP-444, which would activate a “temporary” soft fork to reduce data limits.