🍷 Like a fine wine

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has been the topic of hot debate on Supply Shock over the past couple of weeks.

Is the halving cycle over, or just different now? Adrian Morris of True North makes the case on today’s podcast that people are mashing together the wrong drivers.

“Liquidity seeks quality while stimulus seeks speculation,” Morris told host Pete Rizzo. 

In other words: The boom-busts you remember from the previous cycle might’ve been more about the Covid stimulus checks than Bitcoin’s halving.

Morris thinks the investor mix matters, too. With ETFs and corporates hoovering coins, “the impetus to rotate out of bitcoin may be significantly reduced.” Since the ETFs launched, he says volatility has trended lower, which broadens the tent. “We have a different investor base in bitcoin.”

Institutions aren’t saints — just aligned. “It is not a matter of BlackRock…being convicted. It’s a matter of them being greedy. They [have] a vested interest in bitcoin’s price rising because the higher the price, the more they see in fees.” 

As for ETH products and the rest? Morris shrugs at the false binary: “They want Peter and they want Paul.”

The macro overlay: Cuts would be gasoline on a fire that’s already lit. Even big sells may not bite like before. “Someone just sold 80,000 BTC and we dropped $5,000. That’s it.”

Zooming out, Morris calls today a maturation phase: “Bitcoin is showing characteristics of a maturing asset class.” His path forward isn’t a blow-off top, it’s his Stairway to Heaven: step-ups and consolidations as supply tightens and the buyer base gets stickier.

Catch the full episode on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts and X.

This newsletter was created with assistance from AI tooling.

• Jeff Bezos’ spaceflight company Blue Origin now accepts bitcoin (plus ETH, solana, tether and USDC).

• Nakamoto CEO David Bailey says he’s ready to buy $763 million BTC today, the first ever purchase for treasury firm Nakamoto.

• A new law in El Salvador lets large investment banks hold bitcoin and serve related services to qualified clients.