🪢 Knots cool

On today’s Supply Shock, Pete Rizzo and economist–writer Joakim Book run a fast news lap: prediction markets, DC gridlock, government BTC stashes, media narratives and the stablecoin land-grab.

Polymarket is booming and it’s now cozy with TradFi. But coolest of all is that it recently enabled BTC deposits. 

Rizzo and Book see “finance = priced beliefs” converging faster than pundits expected.

Still, the vibes are…quiet. The pair speculate that the four-year cycle is fraying: Issuance is now trivial and miners aren’t heavy sellers. Investor behavior and institutions dominate more than halvings.

Full episode on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and X.

This newsletter was created with assistance from AI tooling.

• The rise in publicly-accessible Bitcoin nodes running Knots has tapered off since Core v30 dropped, currently around 5,130, down from ~5,220 last week.

• Electric hands: Tesla reported $80 million unrealized profits on its bitcoin reserves for last quarter (from price gains, it didn’t sell any).

• Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, reportedly reckons that bitcoin’s next potential dip below $100,000 would be its last ever.