🐦‍🔥 4-year cycle is NOT dead

“That’s just not how markets work.”

On today’s Supply Shock podcast episode, veteran bitcoin investor Michael Terpin isn’t buying the “four-year cycle is dead” talk from earlier this week.

The BitAngels co-founder doesn’t agree that bitcoin will drift gently upward forever. 

Markets, he reminds host Pete Rizzo, still swing: 100×, then 30×, then 8×, and — if his math is right — maybe 3× from the 2024 halving, with a 50-60% drawdown waiting on the other side.

Terpin’s own map? A peak near $193,000 this cycle if macro winds behave, then winter. 

After that, adoption meets fixed supply: “So in other words, if you only have 5% of the population having any bitcoin, but you have 95% [of bitcoin] mined, what happens when we triple the amount of people having bitcoin?” Terpin asked.

As for Matt Hougan’s notion that institutional investing patterns will soften bear market corrections, Terpin reasons that they won’t rewrite gravity. 

He figures the suits will learn to buy low like everyone else, while today’s retail looks different — think 45-year-olds nudging 2% of their portfolio into spot ETFs, not TikTok degens chasing DOGE.

Stablecoins get a nod, too. In the Global South, Terpin envisions two wallets per person: stablecoins for checking, bitcoin for saving.

Terpin still intends to navigate bitcoin markets as usual. He sells into euphoria, parks in stables and reloads at peak fear. “Every time I didn’t, I regretted it,” he told Rizzo.

Catch the full episode on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts and X.

This newsletter was created with assistance from AI tooling.

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